Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Turkey
  • Kuwait
  • Israel
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Cyprus
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Thailand
  • Taiwan*
  • Japan
  • Georgia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,591$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,289.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(133,289.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,564$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,194.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,194.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,851$ on 2020-05-27

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $159,797$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,144.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(153,144.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,431$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(735 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,331.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,331.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,573$ on 2020-05-27

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,267$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(62.2 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,548.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 90.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42,548.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $175$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(262.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,146$ on 2020-05-27

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,793$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,536.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,536.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(60.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(273.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,942$ on 2020-05-27

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,969$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(532 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,618.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 81.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,618.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $255$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(266.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,343$ on 2020-05-27

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $939$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(237 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(905.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(7.12 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $328$ on 2020-05-27

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,541$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,412.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(114,412.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $425$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(38.4 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{604.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(604.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,094$ on 2020-05-27

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $48,947$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(460 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,329.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 82.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,329.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,634$ on 2020-05-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Thailand recovered 95%
Taiwan* recovered 95%
Japan recovered 85%
Israel recovered 80%
Turkey recovered 60%
Georgia recovered 55%
Singapore recovered 25%

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,054$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,979.9}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 19.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,979.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.6}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 10.7)}}\) (asimptote \(55.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66$ on 2020-05-27

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $441$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435.3}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-27

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-05-27

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,651$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,574.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 53.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,574.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $858$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(55.8 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{925.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(925.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,820$ on 2020-05-27

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $735$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(89.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{752.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 46.1)}}\) (asimptote \(752.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.93 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 26.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $166$ on 2020-05-27