Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $141,591$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,289.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(133,289.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,564$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,194.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(7,194.1\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,851$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $159,797$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,144.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(153,144.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,431$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(735 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,331.5}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,331.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,573$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,267$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(62.2 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,548.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 90.2)}}\) (asimptote \(42,548.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $175$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.6 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{262.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(262.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,146$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,793$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.26 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,536.6}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(16,536.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $281$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(60.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{273.5}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(273.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,942$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,969$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(532 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,618.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 81.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,618.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{266.4}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(266.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,343$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $939$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(237 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{905.0}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(905.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(7.12 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16.9}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16.9\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $328$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,541$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,412.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.7)}}\) (asimptote \(114,412.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $425$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(38.4 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{604.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(604.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,094$ on 2020-05-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $48,947$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(460 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{80,329.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 82.7)}}\) (asimptote \(80,329.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30$ on 2020-05-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.31 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,634$ on 2020-05-27